Dave Rosenberg writes an interesting piece about open source downloads and reciprocal value. Dave mentioned a few metrics and his quest for a model that ties downloads to user code modification contributions to value for the project.I did market opportunity forecasts for a few years with IBM’s Software group, so his quest piqued my interest.
Here’s what I was able to come up with VERY QUICKLY (i.e. formatting the file took longer than thinking about the model). Although I will note that many times during my forecasting days I found that a quick & dirty model wasn’t orders of magnitude less accurate than models that try to quantify everything with p=95% data. I’ve made some assumptions, feel free to change the field values (in any yellow cell) and see the results.
If you come up with a better model, please leave a comment or hit savio13 at google’s free email service (come on, ya know the name).