Just read this on Barron’s Online:

 

Is the growth rate of Linux adoption slowing down? UBS software analyst Heather Bellini asks that provocative question in a rundown this morning on the findings of her firm’s latest survey of CIOs.

Bellini writes that of the 47% of CIOs in the survey who said they were not Linux users, just over 90% indicated that they would not deploy the open source operating system in 2007. She writes that this is a deviation from previous surveys which about 60% of the respondents did not plan to deploy Linux. Her conclusion: “We believe it should be expected that Linux operating system growth will slow from the significant grow rates of the past few years.”

It’s difficult to comment on this news without seeing the survey data being used to make this prediction.

 

Setting aside the Linux adoption question, we should consider the Linux usage & revenue question. The analyst doesn’t appear to address the growing use of Linux in shops that already use Linux; the whole, ‘try it, like it, use more’ scenario. Also not accounted is whether the 10% who are going to adopt Linux will add one copy each or add 100 copies each.

 

In any case, I’d guess that Linux adoption, usage and revenue is doing just fine, thank you very much.

5 Responses to “UBS Analyst: Is Linux Adoption Slowing?”


  1. UBS Analyst: Is Linux Adoption Slowing?

    It’s difficult to comment on this news without seeing the survey data being used to make this prediction. Setting aside the Linux adoption question, we should consider the Linux usage

  2. Jon Says:

    The other question I have, which will probably just be embarrassing to the CIOs interviewed would be, how many of those shops already use Linux and are planning on deploying more without the CIO even knowing it is happening. It’s hard to imagine a modern enterprise shop that isn’t already using Linux and already planning on deploying more appliances, servers, and virtual machines with Linux underneath.

    In my experience CIOs don’t really know what is driving their applications. They operate with budgets and projects. Totally results driven, due to who they report to, and how they justify budgets.

    Linux on commodity Intel hardware is a very capable replacement in the server room for proprietary UNIX and Windows platforms, and data centers which embrace the solution only seem to flourish.

    The only time I see an enterprise shop make a move off of Linux in favor of something more expensive, is when a vendor sweetens the pot. This happens more than you would think, but it creates a love-hate relationship with said vendor.

    Cheers,
    Jon

  3. JJS Says:

    I think the key phrase here is, “they would not deploy the open source operating system in 2007.” This opens a Pandora’s box of questions for Ms. Bellini. Will they deploy Vista, another OS, or nothing? Will they deploy Linux in 2008? Is this the only statistic in the survey that could be interpreted as a negative for Linux?

    Later . . . Jim

  4. Jeremy Says:

    It is patently obvious that less people will affirm when being asked the same question (would they deploy the open source operating system in 2007), in September 2007 than in the first months of the year.

  5. better than comment Says:

    Linux Job Market Trends: Galloping Forward

    http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/career/article.php/3697896

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